Publications

Increased fire severity in boreal forests of Interior Alaska is shifting forest canopy composition from black spruce (Picea mariana) to deciduous species, including trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) and Alaska paper birch (Betula neoalaskana). Because deciduous trees are less flammable than black spruce, the dominant disturbance regime in deciduous forests could move away from fire to one of gap disturbances. In this study, we quantified forest gap characteristics and vegetation within eight mature (62-119-yr-old) deciduous stands in Interior Alaska. Canopy gaps were generally small (true gap area <50 m(2)), formed by the mortality of 4-16 gap makers (which were always deciduous trees), and occupied similar to 17-29% of the forest except in the oldest stand, where gap fraction exceeded 45%, and in one anomalous 84-yr old stand, where gaps were absent. Canopy openness increased linearly with gap area, but density of both deciduous and evergreen tree recruits was generally low and insufficient to create future stands with densities similar to those currently found in mature stands across the landscape. Canopy openness was instead correlated with decreased leaf litter cover and increased cover of moss, lichen, and evergreen shrubs. Given the low recruitment of trees with canopy gaps and the decreased probability of fire, deciduous stands will likely "transition to non-forested areas or low density stands once overstory trees reach maturity and die. This could have numerous implications for ecosystem function, including carbon (C), water, and energy balance, and potential feedbacks to future fire occurrence and regional climate. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  

Over the last two decades, satellite-derived estimates of biophysical variables have been increasingly used in operational services, requiring quantification of their accuracy and uncertainty. Evaluating satellite-derived vegetation products is challenging due to their moderate spatial resolution, the heterogeneity of the terrestrial landscape, and difficulties in adequately characterising spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In recent years, near-surface remote sensing has emerged as a potential source of data against which satellite-derived vegetation products can be evaluated. Several studies have focussed on the evaluation of satellite-derived phenological transition dates, however in most cases the shape and magnitude of the underlying time-series are neglected. In this paper, we investigated the relationship between the green chromatic coordinate (GCC) derived using near-surface remote sensing and a range of vegetation products derived from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) throughout the growing season. Moderate to strong relationships between the GCC and vegetation products derived from MERIS were observed at deciduous forest sites. Weak relationships were observed over evergreen forest sites as a result of their subtle seasonality, which is likely masked by atmospheric, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), and shadowing effects. Temporal inconsistencies were attributed to the oblique viewing geometry of the digital cameras and differences in the incorporated spectral bands. In addition, the commonly observed summer decline in GCC values was found to be primarily associated with seasonal variations in brown pigment concentration, and to a lesser extent illumination geometry. At deciduous sites, increased sensitivity to initial increases in canopy greenness was demonstrated by the GCC, making it particularly well-suited to identifying the start of season when compared to satellite-derived vegetation products. Nevertheless, in some cases, the relationship between the GCC and vegetation products derived from MERIS was found to saturate asymptotically. This limits the potential of the approach for evaluation of the vegetation products that underlie satellite-derived phenological transition dates, and for the continuous monitoring of vegetation during the growing season, particularly at medium to high biomass study sites.

Current and future warming of high latitude ecosystems will play an important role in climate change through feedbacks to the global carbon cycle. This study compares six years of CO2 flux measurements in moist acidic tundra using autochambers and eddy covariance (Tower) approaches. We found that the tundra was an annual source of CO2 to the atmosphere as indicated by net ecosystem exchange using both methods with a combined mean of 105 +/- 17 g CO2 - C m-2 y-1 across methods and years (Tower 87 +/- 17 and Autochamber 123 +/- 14). The difference between methods was largest early in the observation period, with Autochambers indicated a greater CO2 source to the atmosphere. This discrepancy diminished through time and in the final year the Autochambers measured a greater sink strength than tower. Active layer thickness (ALT) was a significant driver of NEE, GPP, and R eco and could account for differences between Autochamber and Tower. The stronger source initially was attributed lower summer season gross primary production (GPP) during the first three years, coupled with lower ecosystem respiration (R eco) during the first year. The combined suppression of GPP and R eco in the first year of Autochamber measurements could be the result of the experimental setup. Root damage associated with Autochamber soil collar installation may have lowered the plant community's capacity to fix C, but recovered within three years. While this ecosystem was a consistent CO2 sink during the summer, CO2 emissions during the non-summer months offset summer CO2 uptake each year.

Despite a large body of research documenting invasive plant impacts, few studies have followed individual invaded sites over decades to observe how they change, and none have contrasted how compositional impacts from invasion compare to ecosystem-process impacts over a multi-decadal time-scale. Using direct measurements of plant density and composition and of ecosystems processes, we evaluate how ecosystem structure, above-ground net primary production (ANPP), and above-ground and soil nutrient pools compare over 25 years since fire and C4 grass invasions disrupted seasonally dry Hawaiian woodlands. We compare structure and function between primary woodland that has never burned and is largely native species-dominated, with sites that had been the same woodland type but burned in alien-grass-fuelled fires in the 1970s and 1980s. The sites have not experienced fires since 1987. We report here that woody plant composition and structure continue to be dramatically changed by the initial invasions and fires that occurred 25 years ago and invaders continue to dominate in burned sites. This is reflected in continued low plant carbon pools in burned compared to unburned sites. Yet ANPP and N storage, which were dramatically lower in the initial decade after invasive-grass fuelled fires, have increased and are now indistinguishable from values measured in intact woodlands. Soil carbon pools were resilient to both invasion and fire initially and over time. Above-ground net primary production has recovered because of invasion of burned sites by a non-native N-fixing tree rather than because of recovery of native species. This invasive N-fixing tree is unlikely to return C storage of the invaded sites to those of unburned woodland because of its tissue and growth characteristics and its interactions with invasive grasses. It does not facilitate native species but rather promotes a persistent invasive grass/N-fixer savanna. Synthesis. We conclude that fire, an unusual disturbance in this system, has perpetuated the dominance of these sites by invasive species and that despite the dramatic recovery of above-ground net primary production and N pools, the ecosystem continues to be in a distinctly different state than the pre-fire, pre-Melinis community. Thus, despite the absence of further disturbance (fire), there is no evidence that succession towards the original ecosystem is occurring. The fact that N pools and above-ground net primary production recover because of a new invader (Morella faya), highlights the unpredictability of ecosystem trajectories in the face of altered regional species pools.

Climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its consequent impacts on land carbon sink interannual variability have been used as a basis for investigating carbon cycle responses to climate variability more broadly, and to inform the sensitivity of the tropical carbon budget to climate change. Past studies have presented opposing views about whether temperature or precipitation is the primary factor driving the response of the land carbon sink to ENSO. Here, we show that the dominant driver varies with ENSO phase. Whereas tropical temperature explains sink dynamics following El Niño conditions (r TG,P = 0.59, p < 0.01), the post La Niña sink is driven largely by tropical precipitation (r PG,T = −0.46, p = 0.04). This finding points to an ENSO-phase-dependent interplay between water availability and temperature in controlling the carbon uptake response to climate variations in tropical ecosystems. We further find that none of a suite of ten contemporary terrestrial biosphere models captures these ENSO-phase-dependent responses, highlighting a key uncertainty in modeling climate impacts on the future of the global land carbon sink.

Quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition under warming is critical to predict carbon–climate feedbacks. According to the substrate regulating principle, SOC decomposition would decrease as labile SOC declines under field warming, but observations of SOC decomposition under warming do not always support this prediction. This discrepancy could result from varying changes in SOC components and soil microbial communities under warming. This study aimed to determine the decomposition of SOC components with different turnover times after subjected to long‐term field warming and/or root exclusion to limit C input, and to test whether SOC decomposition is driven by substrate lability under warming. Taking advantage of a 12‐year field warming experiment in a prairie, we assessed the decomposition of SOC components by incubating soils from control and warmed plots, with and without root exclusion for 3 years. We assayed SOC decomposition from these incubations by combining inverse modeling and microbial functional genes during decomposition with a metagenomic technique (GeoChip). The decomposition of SOC components with turnover times of years and decades, which contributed to 95% of total cumulative CO2 respiration, was greater in soils from warmed plots. But the decomposition of labile SOC was similar in warmed plots compared to the control. The diversity of C‐degradation microbial genes generally declined with time during the incubation in all treatments, suggesting shifts of microbial functional groups as substrate composition was changing. Compared to the control, soils from warmed plots showed significant increase in the signal intensities of microbial genes involved in degrading complex organic compounds, implying enhanced potential abilities of microbial catabolism. These are likely responsible for accelerated decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates. Overall, the shifted microbial community induced by long‐term warming accelerates the decomposition of SOC components with slow turnover rates and thus amplify the positive feedback to climate change.

Carbon storage by ecosystems is valuable for climate protection. Biodiversity conservation may help increase carbon storage, but the value of this influence has been difficult to assess. We use plant, soil, and ecosystem carbon storage data from two grassland biodiversity experiments to show that greater species richness increases economic value: Increasing species richness from 1 to 10 had twice the economic value of increasing species richness from 1 to 2. The marginal value of each additional species declined as species accumulated, reflecting the nonlinear relationship between species richness and plant biomass production. Our demonstration of the economic value of biodiversity for enhancing carbon storage provides a foundation for assessing the value of biodiversity for decisions about land management. Combining carbon storage with other ecosystem services affected by biodiversity may well enhance the economic arguments for conservation even further.

Bryophytes are dominant components of boreal forest understories and play a large role in regulating soil microclimate and nutrient cycling. Therefore, shifts in bryophyte communities have the potential to affect boreal forests’ ecosystem processes. We investigated how bryophyte communities varied in 83 forest stands in interior Alaska that ranged in age (since fire) from 8 to 163 years and had canopies dominated by deciduous broadleaf (Populus tremuloides Michx. or Betula neoalaskana Sarg.) or coniferous trees (Picea mariana Mill B.S.P.). In each stand, we measured bryophyte community composition, along with environmental variables (e.g., organic layer depth, leaf litter cover, moisture). Bryophyte communities were initially similar in deciduous vs. coniferous forests but diverged in older stands in association with changes in organic layer depth and leaf litter cover. Our data suggest two tipping points in bryophyte succession: one at the disappearance of early colonizing taxa 20 years after fire and another at 40 years after fire, which corresponds to canopy closure and differential leaf litter inputs in mature deciduous and coniferous canopies. Our results enhance understanding of the processes that shape compositional patterns and ecosystem services of bryophytes in relation to stand age, canopy composition, and changing disturbances such as fire that may trigger changes in canopy composition.

Applying biochar to soil is thought to have multiple benefits, from helping mitigate climate change [1, 2], to managing waste [3] to conserving soil [4]. Biochar is also widely assumed to boost crop yield [5, 6], but there is controversy regarding the extent and cause of any yield benefit [7]. Here we use a global-scale meta-analysis to show that biochar has, on average, no effect on crop yield in temperate latitudes, yet elicits a 25% average increase in yield in the tropics. In the tropics, biochar increased yield through liming and fertilization, consistent with the low soil pH, low fertility, and low fertilizer inputs typical of arable tropical soils. We also found that, in tropical soils, high-nutrient biochar inputs stimulated yield substantially more than low-nutrient biochar, further supporting the role of nutrient fertilization in the observed yield stimulation. In contrast, arable soils in temperate regions are moderate in pH, higher in fertility, and generally receive higher fertilizer inputs, leaving little room for additional benefits from biochar. Our findings demonstrate that the yield-stimulating effects of biochar are not universal, but may especially benefit agriculture in low-nutrient, acidic soils in the tropics. Biochar management in temperate zones should focus on potential non-yield benefits such as lime and fertilizer cost savings, greenhouse gas emissions control, and other ecosystem services.

Uptake of anthropogenically emitted carbon (C) dioxide by terrestrial ecosystem is critical for determining future climate. However, Earth system models project large uncertainties in future C storage. To help identify sources of uncertainties in model predictions, this study develops a transient traceability framework to trace components of C storage dynamics. Transient C storage (X) can be decomposed into two components, C storage capacity (Xc) and C storage potential (Xp). Xc is the maximum C amount that an ecosystem can potentially store and Xp represents the internal capacity of an ecosystem to equilibrate C input and output for a network of pools. Xc is codetermined by net primary production (NPP) and residence time (τN), with the latter being determined by allocation coefficients, transfer coefficients, environmental scalar, and exit rate. Xp is the product of redistribution matrix (τch) and net ecosystem exchange. We applied this framework to two contrasting ecosystems, Duke Forest and Harvard Forest with an ecosystem model. This framework helps identify the mechanisms underlying the responses of carbon cycling in the two forests to climate change. The temporal trajectories of X are similar between the two ecosystems. Using this framework, we found that different mechanisms lead to a similar trajectory between the two ecosystems. This framework has potential to reveal mechanisms behind transient C storage in response to various global change factors. It can also identify sources of uncertainties in predicted transient C storage across models and can therefore be useful for model intercomparison.

Breeding high‐yielding rice cultivars through increasing biomass is a key strategy to meet rising global food demands. Yet, increasing rice growth can stimulate methane (CH4) emissions, exacerbating global climate change, as rice cultivation is a major source of this powerful greenhouse gas. Here, we show in a series of experiments that high‐yielding rice cultivars actually reduce CH4 emissions from typical paddy soils. Averaged across 33 rice cultivars, a biomass increase of 10% resulted in a 10.3% decrease in CH4 emissions in a soil with a high carbon (C) content. Compared to a low‐yielding cultivar, a high‐yielding cultivar significantly increased root porosity and the abundance of methane‐consuming microorganisms, suggesting that the larger and more porous root systems of high‐yielding cultivars facilitated CH4 oxidation by promoting O2 transport to soils. Our results were further supported by a meta‐analysis, showing that high‐yielding rice cultivars strongly decrease CH4 emissions from paddy soils with high organic C contents. Based on our results, increasing rice biomass by 10% could reduce annual CH4 emissions from Chinese rice agriculture by 7.1%. Our findings suggest that modern rice breeding strategies for high‐yielding cultivars can substantially mitigate paddy CH4 emission in China and other rice growing regions.

Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.

The North American Monsoon delivers warm season precipitation to much of the southwestern United States, yet the importance of this water source for forested ecosystems in the region is not well understood. While it is widely accepted that trees in southwestern forests use winter precipitation for earlywood production, the extent to which summer (monsoon season) precipitation supports latewood production is unclear. We used tree ring records, local climate data, and stable isotope analyses (δ¹⁸O) of water and cellulose to examine the importance of monsoon precipitation for latewood production in mature ponderosa pine (<i>Pinus ponderosa</i> Dougl.) in northern Arizona. Our analyses identified monsoon season vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) as significant effects on latewood growth, together explaining 39% of latewood ring width variation. Stem water and cellulose δ¹⁸O analyses suggest that monsoon precipitation was not directly used for latewood growth. Our findings suggest that mature ponderosa pines in this region utilize winter precipitation for growth throughout the entire year. The influence of monsoon precipitation on growth is indirect and mediated by its effect on atmospheric moisture stress (VPD). Together, summer VPD and antecedent soil moisture conditions have a strong influence on latewood growth.

Warming temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere have enhanced terrestrial productivity. Despite the warming trend, North America has experienced more frequent and more intense cold weather events during winters and springs. These events have been linked to anomalous Arctic warming since 1990, and may affect terrestrial processes. Here we analyse multiple observation data sets and numerical model simulations to evaluate links between Arctic temperatures and primary productivity in North America. We find that positive springtime temperature anomalies in the Arctic have led to negative anomalies in gross primary productivity over most of North America during the last three decades, which amount to a net productivity decline of 0.31 PgC yr−1across the continent. This decline is mainly explained by two factors: severe cold conditions in northern North America and lower precipitation in the South Central United States. In addition, United States crop-yield data reveal that during years experiencing anomalous warming in the Arctic, yields declined by approximately 1 to 4% on average, with individual states experiencing declines of up to 20%. We conclude that the strengthening of Arctic warming anomalies in the past decades has remotely reduced productivity over North America.

Plant phenology is a sensitive indicator of the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems and controls the timing of key ecosystem functions including photosynthesis and transpiration. Aerial drone imagery and photogrammetric techniques promise to advance the study of phenology by enabling the creation of distortion-free orthomosaics of plant canopies at the landscape scale, but with branch-level image resolution. The main goal of this study is to determine the leaf life cycle events corresponding to phenological metrics derived from automated analyses based on color indices calculated from drone imagery. For an oak-dominated, temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern USA, we find that plant area index (PAI) correlates with a canopy greenness index during spring green-up, and a canopy redness index during autumn senescence. Additionally, greenness and redness metrics are significantly correlated with the timing of budburst and leaf expansion on individual trees in spring. However, we note that the specific color index for individual trees must be carefully chosen if new foliage in spring appears red, rather than green—which we observed for some oak trees. In autumn, both decreasing greenness and increasing redness correlate with leaf senescence. Maximum redness indicates the beginning of leaf fall, and the progression of leaf fall correlates with decreasing redness. We also find that cooler air temperature microclimates near a forest edge bordering a wetland advance the onset of senescence. These results demonstrate the use of drones for characterizing the organismic-level variability of phenology in a forested landscape and advance our understanding of which phenophase transitions correspond to color-based metrics derived from digital image analysis.

Antibiotic‐resistant pathogens increasingly threaten human health. Widespread application of antibiotics to animal populations raised for food, including chickens, cattle, and pigs, selects for resistance and contributes to the evolution of those pathogens. Despite a half century of research establishing the mechanisms and pathways by which antibiotic‐resistant bacteria spread from food animals to people, scientists lack the appropriate data and models to estimate the public health burden of antibiotic‐resistant human infections attributable to antibiotic use in food‐animal production. Genomic technologies are enabling researchers to track the bidirectional transmissions of specific bacterial strains from livestock to people – and from people to livestock – that can amplify resistance traits. Concepts in ecology, which were developed to understand resource subsidies, metapopulations, and biological invasions, provide insight into the epidemiology of antibiotic resistance from genomic data. By applying ecological principles to highly resolved phylogenetic data, researchers can improve strategies for controlling antibiotic resistance.

Groundwater is an integral component of the water cycle, and it also influences the carbon cycle by supplying moisture to ecosystems. However, the extent and determinants of groundwater-vegetation interactions are poorly understood at the global scale. Using several high-resolution data products, we show that the spatial patterns of ecosystem gross primary productivity and groundwater table depth are correlated during at least one season in more than two thirds of the global vegetated area. Positive relationships, i.e., larger productivity under shallower groundwater table, predominate in moisture-limited dry to mesic conditions with herbaceous and shrub vegetation. Negative relationships, i.e., larger productivity under deeper groundwater, predominate in humid climates with forests, possibly indicating a drawdown of groundwater table due to substantial ecosystem water use. Interestingly, these opposite groundwater-vegetation interactions are primarily associated with differences in vegetation than with climate and surface characteristics. These findings put forth the first evidence, and a need for better representation, of extensive and non-negligible groundwater-vegetation interactions at the global scale.

Labile carbon (C) input to soil can accelerate or slow the decomposition of soil organic matter, a phenomenon called priming. However, priming is difficult to predict, making its relationship with C input elusive. To assess this relationship, we added ¹³C-glucose at five levels (8 to 1606 μg C g⁻¹ week⁻¹) to the soil from four different ecosystems for seven weeks. We observed a positive linear relationship between C input and priming in all soils: priming increased from negative or no priming at low C input to strong positive priming at high C input. However, the sensitivity of priming to C input varied among soils and between ways of expressing C input, and decreased with elevation. Positive substrate thresholds were detected in three soils (56 to 242 μg C g⁻¹ week⁻¹), suggesting the minimum C input required to trigger positive priming. Carbon input expressed as a fraction of microbial biomass explained 16.5% less variation in priming than did C input expressed as a fraction of dry soil mass, indicating that priming is not strongly related to the size of the soil microbial biomass. We conclude that priming increases with the rate of labile C input, once that rate exceeds a threshold, but the magnitude of increase varies among soils. Further research on mechanisms causing the variation of priming sensitivity to increasing labile C input might help promote a quantitative understanding of how such phenomenon impacts soil C cycling, offering the potential to improve earth system models.

Fertilizer inputs affect plant uptake of native soil nitrogen (N), yet the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. To increase mechanistic insight into this phenomenon, we evaluated the effect of fertilizer addition on mineralization (in the absence of plants) and plant uptake of native soil N. We synthesized 43 isotope tracer (¹⁵N) studies and estimated the effects of fertilizer addition using <em>meta</em>-analysis. We found that organic fertilizer tended to reduce native soil N mineralization (−99 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; p = 0.09) while inorganic fertilizer tended to increase N priming (58 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹; p = 0.17). In contrast, both organic and inorganic fertilizers significantly increased plant uptake of native soil N (179 and 107 kg ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). Organic fertilizer had greater effect on plant uptake than on mineralization of native soil N (p &lt; 0.001), but inorganic fertilizer had similar effects. Fertilizer effects on mineralization and plant uptake of native soil N were not influenced by study location (laboratory or field) and duration, soil texture, carbon and N content, and pH. Fertilizer addition variably affected native soil N mineralization but consistently increased plant uptake of native soil N. The positive effect of organic fertilizer on plant uptake of native soil N can not be explained by its negative effect on native soil N mineralization, suggesting that increased plant uptake of native soil N was caused mostly by plant-mediated mechanisms (e.g., increased root growth, rhizosphere N priming) rather than by soil microbe-mediated mechanisms.

Large uncertainties exist in predicting responses of wetland methane (CH4) fluxes to future climate change. However, sources of the uncertainty have not been clearly identified despite the fact that methane production and emission processes have been extensively explored. In this study, we took advantage of manual CH4 flux measurements under ambient environment from 2011 to 2014 at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experimental site and developed a data‐informed process‐based methane module. The module was incorporated into the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model before its parameters were constrained with multiple years of methane flux data for forecasting CH4 emission under five warming and two elevated CO2 treatments at SPRUCE. We found that 9°C warming treatments significantly increased methane emission by approximately 400%, and elevated CO2 treatments stimulated methane emission by 10.4%–23.6% in comparison with ambient conditions. The relative contribution of plant‐mediated transport to methane emission decreased from 96% at the control to 92% at the 9°C warming, largely to compensate for an increase in ebullition. The uncertainty in plant‐mediated transportation and ebullition increased with warming and contributed to the overall changes of emissions uncertainties. At the same time, our modeling results indicated a significant increase in the emitted CH4:CO2 ratio. This result, together with the larger warming potential of CH4, will lead to a strong positive feedback from terrestrial ecosystems to climate warming. The model‐data fusion approach used in this study enabled parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for forecasting methane fluxes.

Rapid Arctic warming is expected to increase global greenhouse gas concentrations as permafrost thaw exposes immense stores of frozen carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also stimulates plant growth, which could offset C loss.Using data from seven years of experimental Air and Soil warming in moist acidic tundra, we show that Soil warming had a much stronger effect on CO2 flux than Air warming. Soil warming caused rapid permafrost thaw and increased ecosystem respiration (Reco), gross primary productivity (GPP), and net summer CO2 storage (NEE). Over seven years Reco, GPP, and NEE also increased in Control (i.e., ambient plots), but this change could be explained by slow thaw in Control areas. In the initial stages of thaw, Reco, GPP, and NEE increased linearly with thaw across all treatments, despite different rates of thaw. As thaw in Soil warming continued to increase linearly, ground surface subsidence created saturated micro-sites, and suppressed Reco, GPP, and NEE. However Reco and GPP remained high in areas with large Eriophorum vaginatum biomass. In general NEE increased with thaw, but was more strongly correlated with plant biomass than thaw, indicating that higher Reco in deeply thawed areas during summer months was balanced by GPP. Summer CO2 flux across treatments fit a single quadratic relationship that captured the functional response of CO₂ flux to thaw, water table depth, and plant biomass. These results demonstrate the importance of indirect thaw effects on CO2 flux: plant growth and water table dynamics. Non-summer Reco models estimated that the area was an annual CO2 source during all years of observation. Non-summer CO2 loss in warmer, more deeply thawed soils exceeded the increases in summer GPP, and thawed tundra was a net annual CO2 source.

Aridisols are the dominant soil type in drylands, which occupy one-third of Earth's terrestrial surface. We examined controls on biogeographical patterns of Aridisol prokaryotic (bacterial and archaeal) communities at a regional scale by comparing communities from 100 Aridisols throughout the southwestern United States using high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. We found that microbial communities differed among global biomes and deserts of the Southwest. Differences among biomes were driven by differences in taxonomic identities, whereas differences among deserts of the Southwest were driven by differences in relative sequence abundance. Desert communities were dominated by Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria and Crenarchaeota, supporting the notion of a core set of abundant taxa in desert soils. Our findings contrast with studies showing little taxonomic overlap at the OTU level (97% sequence similarity) across large spatial scales, as we found ∼90% of taxa in at least two of the three deserts. Geographic distance structured prokaryotic communities indirectly through the influence of climate and soil properties. Structural equation modeling suggests that climate exerts a stronger influence than soil properties in shaping the composition of Aridisol microbial communities, with annual heat moisture index (an aridity metric) being the strongest climate driver. Annual heat moisture index was associated with decreased microbial diversity and richness. If the Desert Southwest becomes hotter and drier as predicted, these findings suggest that prokaryotic diversity and richness in Aridisols will decline.

Forests cover 30% of the terrestrial Earth surface and are a major component of the global carbon (C) cycle. Humans have doubled the amount of global reactive nitrogen (N), increasing deposition of N onto forests worldwide. However, other global changes—especially climate change and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations—are increasing demand for N, the element limiting primary productivity in temperate forests, which could be reducing N availability. To determine the long-term, integrated effects of global changes on forest N cycling, we measured stable N isotopes in wood, a proxy for N supply relative to demand, on large spatial and temporal scales across the continental U.S.A. Here, we show that forest N availability has generally declined across much of the U.S. since at least 1850 C.E. with cool, wet forests demonstrating the greatest declines. Across sites, recent trajectories of N availability were independent of recent atmospheric N deposition rates, implying a minor role for modern N deposition on the trajectory of N status of North American forests. Our results demonstrate that current trends of global changes are likely to be consistent with forest oligotrophication into the foreseeable future, further constraining forest C fixation and potentially storage.

Increasing wildfire activity in Alaska's boreal forests has led to greater fuel-reduction management. Management has been implemented to reduce wildfire spread, but the ecological impacts of these practices are poorly known. We quantified the effects of hand-thinning and shearblading on above- and belowground stand characteristics, plant species composition, carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, and soil thaw across 19 sites dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana) in interior Alaska treated 2?12 years prior to sampling. The density of deciduous tree seedlings was significantly higher in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest (6.4 vs. 0.1 stems/m2), and unmanaged stands exhibited the highest mean density of conifer seedlings and layers (1.4 stems/m2). Understory plant community composition was most similar between unmanaged and thinned stands. Shearblading resulted in a near complete loss of aboveground tree biomass C pools while thinning approximately halved the C pool size (1.2 kg C/m2 compared to 3.1 kg C/m2 in unmanaged forest). Significantly smaller soil organic layer (SOL) C and N pools were observed in shearbladed stands (3.2 kg C/m2 and 116.8 g N/m2) relative to thinned (6.0 kg C/m2 and 192.2 g N/m2) and unmanaged (5.9 kg C/m2 and 178.7 g N/m2) stands. No difference in C and N pool sizes in the uppermost 10 cm of mineral soil was observed among stand types. Total C stocks for measured pools was 2.6 kg C/m2 smaller in thinned stands and 5.8 kg C/m2 smaller in shearbladed stands when compared to unmanaged forest. Soil thaw depth averaged 13 cm deeper in thinned areas and 46 cm deeper in shearbladed areas relative to adjacent unmanaged stands, although variability was high across sites. Deeper soil thaw was linked to shallower SOL depth for unmanaged stands and both management types, however for any given SOL depth, thaw tended to be deeper in shearbladed areas compared to unmanaged forest. These findings indicate that fuel-reduction management alters plant community composition, C and N pools, and soil thaw depth, with consequences for ecosystem structure and function beyond those intended for fire management.

Microorganisms perform most decomposition on Earth, mediating carbon (C) loss from ecosystems, and thereby influencing climate. Yet, how variation in the identity and composition of microbial communities influences ecosystem C balance is far from clear. Using quantitative stable isotope probing of DNA, we show how individual bacterial taxa influence soil C cycling following the addition of labile C (glucose). Specifically, we show that increased decomposition of soil C in response to added glucose (positive priming) occurs as a phylogenetically diverse group of taxa, accounting for a large proportion of the bacterial community, shift toward additional soil C use for growth. Our findings suggest that many microbial taxa exhibit C use plasticity, as most taxa altered their use of glucose and soil organic matter depending upon environmental conditions. In contrast, bacteria that exhibit other responses to glucose (reduced growth or reliance on glucose for additional growth) clustered strongly by phylogeny. These results suggest that positive priming is likely the prototypical response of bacteria to sustained labile C addition, consistent with the widespread occurrence of the positive priming effect in nature.

Species diversity affects the functioning of ecosystems, including the efficiency by which communities capture limited resources, produce biomass, recycle and retain biologically essential nutrients. These ecological functions ultimately support the ecosystem services upon which humanity depends. Despite hundreds of experimental tests of the effect of biodiversity on ecosystem function (BEF), it remains unclear whether diversity effects are sufficiently general that we can use a single relationship to quantitatively predict how changes in species richness alter an ecosystem function across trophic levels, ecosystems and ecological conditions. Our objective here is to determine whether a general relationship exists between biodiversity and standing biomass. We used hierarchical mixed effects models, based on a power function between species richness and biomass production (Y = a × S^b), and a database of 374 published experiments to estimate the BEF relationship (the change in biomass with the addition of species), and its associated uncertainty, in the context of environmental factors. We found that the mean relationship (<em>b</em> = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.16, 0.37) characterized the vast majority of observations, was robust to differences in experimental design, and was independent of the range of species richness levels considered. However, the richness–biomass relationship varied by trophic level and among ecosystems; in aquatic systems <em>b</em> was nearly twice as large for consumers (herbivores and detritivores) compared to primary producers; in terrestrial ecosystems, <em>b</em> for detritivores was negative but depended on few studies. We estimated changes in biomass expected for a range of changes in species richness, highlighting that species loss has greater implications than species gains, skewing a distribution of biomass change relative to observed species richness change. When biomass provides a good proxy for processes that underpin ecosystem services, this relationship could be used as a step in modeling the production of ecosystem services and their dependence on biodiversity.

Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high‐latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high‐latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.

Colonizing opportunistic pathogens (COPs) are microbes that asymptomatically colonize the human body and, when the conditions are right, can cause infections. Their ability to persist indefinitely and to be transmitted without detection gives COPs a unique epidemiology that warrants special consideration. There are examples of COPs among bacteria, fungi (e.g., Candida albicans), protozoa (e.g., Blastocystis), and viruses (e.g., Rhinovirus), but bacterial COPs are of particular relevance because of their major contribution to today’s antibiotic resistance crisis. The COPs include a long list of notorious bacteria that live double lives as passive stowaways and virulent foes. Some of the best-known COPs include Staphylococcus aureus, extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC), Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Streptococcus pneumoniae (Table 1). Their capacity for benign coexistence with humans belies their alter egos that exact a heavy burden of human disease. For example, in the United States, ExPEC bloodstream infections kill as many as 40,000 people annually, but, ExPEC are also benign colonizers in the gastrointestinal tract. Host factors, including age, sex, health status, anatomy, and behavior, all play profound roles in infection susceptibility and severity. In particular, immunocompromised individuals are at excess risk for infections caused by diverse bacteria, including COPs and even commensals. Yet, health status is not the sole determinant of infection by COPs. For example, healthy women more frequently suffer from urinary tract infections than men because of anatomical differences, including shorter urethrae. Likewise, healthy children more commonly suffer from acute otitis media than adults due to their shorter, flatter eustachian tubes.

Satellite derived vegetation indices (VIs) are broadly used in ecological research, ecosystem modeling, and land surface monitoring. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), perhaps the most utilized VI, has countless applications across ecology, forestry, agriculture, wildlife, biodiversity, and other disciplines. Calculating satellite derived NDVI is not always straight-forward, however, as satellite remote sensing datasets are inherently noisy due to cloud and atmospheric contamination, data processing failures, and instrument malfunction. Readily available NDVI products that account for these complexities are generally at coarse resolution; high resolution NDVI datasets are not conveniently accessible and developing them often presents numerous technical and methodological challenges. We address this deficiency by producing a Landsat derived, high resolution (30 m), long-term (30+ years) NDVI dataset for the conterminous United States. We use Google Earth Engine, a planetary-scale cloud-based geospatial analysis platform, for processing the Landsat data and distributing the final dataset. We use a climatology driven approach to fill missing data and validate the dataset with established remote sensing products at multiple scales. We provide access to the composites through a simple web application, allowing users to customize key parameters appropriate for their application, question, and region of interest.

Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) have been shown to reduce abiotic stress on plants, but these effects have not been quantitatively synthesized. We evaluated the degree to which plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) improve plant performance with and without drought stress.

Drought, a recurring phenomenon with major impacts on both human and natural systems, is the most widespread climatic extreme that negatively affects the land carbon sink. Although twentieth-century trends in drought regimes are ambiguous across many regions more frequent and severe droughts are expected in the twenty-first century. Recovery time—how long an ecosystem requires to revert to its pre-drought functional state—is a critical metric of drought impact. Yet the factors influencing drought recovery and its spatiotemporal patterns at the global scale are largely unknown. Here we analyse three independent datasets of gross primary productivity and show that, across diverse ecosystems, drought recovery times are strongly associated with climate and carbon cycle dynamics, with biodiversity and CO2 fertilization as secondary factors. Our analysis also provides two key insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of drought recovery time: first, that recovery is longest in the tropics and high northern latitudes (both vulnerable areas of Earth’s climate system) and second, that drought impacts (assessed using the area of ecosystems actively recovering and time to recovery) have increased over the twentieth century. If droughts become more frequent, as expected, the time between droughts may become shorter than drought recovery time, leading to permanently damaged ecosystems and widespread degradation of the land carbon sink.

Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short time-scales and contribute to a carbon-cycle climate feedback. Here we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130 gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback.

Paleo-redox proxies are crucial for reconstructing past bottom water oxygen concentration changes brought about by ocean circulation and marine productivity shifts in response to climate forcing. Carbonate I/Ca ratios of multiple benthic foraminifera species from Ocean Drilling Program Hole 1017E—a core drilled within the Californian oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), on the continental slope—are employed to reexamine the transition from the well-oxygenated last glacial into poorly oxygenated modern conditions. The redox and export productivity history of this site is constrained by numerous proxies used to assess sensitivity of I/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera to changes in bottom and pore water O2 concentrations. Reconstructed iodate (IO3−) availability is from the I/Ca ratio of epifaunal (Cibicidoides sp.), shallow infaunal (Uvigerina peregrina), and deep infaunal (Bolivina spissa) foraminifera. The reconstructed IO3− availability profile is used to determine the contribution of bottom water O2 relative to oxidant demand on pore water O2 concentrations. These results suggest that high export productivity on the California Margin drove low pore water O2 concentrations during the Bølling. In contrast, low bottom water O2 concentrations at 950 m water depth only contributed to reduced sediments during the Allerød. Increased contribution of modified North Pacific Intermediate Water to the California Current System ventilated the California OMZ during the late glacial and the Younger Dryas such that water overlying the site was oxygenated. These results highlight the promising potential of this new proxy for understanding the relative influence of bottom water O2concentration and pore water oxidant demand on OMZs.

Northern ecosystem processes play out across scales that are rare elsewhere on contemporary earth: large ranging predator–prey systems are still operational, invasive species are rare, and large-scale natural disturbances occur extensively. Disturbances in the far north affect huge areas of land and are difficult to control or manage. Historically, disturbance patterns and processes ranging across a number of spatio-temporal scales have played an important role in the resilience of northern ecosystems. However, due to interactions with a warming climate, these disturbances are now erasing key legacies of the last millennia of ecosystem processes. Building on the concepts of legacies and cross-scale interactions, we highlight several general conceptual issues that represent key challenges for the future of northern ecosystem science, but that also have relevance to other biomes.

We disagree with the statement by Soussana et al. that the 4p1000 goal is already sufficiently spatially diversified because it is related to the local soil organic C (SOC) stock. This implies that soils with a large SOC stock will normally have a larger nitrogen (N) (and phosphorus, P) surplus than those containing less SOC. We fail to see the rationale for their statement in two ways. First, at the global scale, many soils with a large SOC stock will be (extensively) grazed grasslands, which typically have small inputs of N4 and P inputs and small surpluses. In contrast, many intensively managed arable soils, which typically have lower SOC stocks, have large inputs of N and P leading to large surpluses. Second, in general, soils with a low SOC stock (e.g., old arable soils, degraded lands, mine wastes) have greater potential for increasing SOC than soils with high SOC stocks. Focusing C sequestration efforts on these soils would seem advantageous, both for climate change mitigation and for improving soil quality.

Rising levels of atmospheric CO₂ frequently stimulate plant inputs to soil, but the consequences of these changes for soil carbon (C) dynamics are poorly understood. Plant-derived inputs can accumulate in the soil and become part of the soil C pool (“new soil C”), or accelerate losses of pre-existing (“old”) soil C. The dynamics of the new and old pools will likely differ and alter the long-term fate of soil C, but these separate pools, which can be distinguished through isotopic labeling, have not been considered in past syntheses. Using meta-analysis, we found that while elevated CO₂ (ranging from 550 to 800 parts per million by volume) stimulates the accumulation of new soil C in the short term (&lt; 1 year), these effects do not persist in the longer term (1 - 4 years). Elevated CO₂ does not affect the decomposition or the size of the old soil C pool over either temporal scale. Our results are inconsistent with predictions of conventional soil C models and suggest that elevated CO₂ might increase turnover rates of new soil C. Because increased turnover rates of new soil C limit the potential for additional soil C sequestration, the capacity of land ecosystems to slow the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may be smaller than previously assumed.

Climate change is expected to increase the extent and severity of wildfires throughout the boreal forest. Historically, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) forests in interior Alaska have been relatively free of non-native species, but the compounding effects of climate change and an altered fire regime could facilitate the expansion of non-native plants. We tested the effects of wildfire on non-native plant colonization by conducting a seeding experiment of non-native plants on different substrate types in a burned black spruce forest, and surveying for non-native plants in recently burned and mature black spruce forests. We found few non-native plants in burned or mature forests, despite their high roadside presence, although invasion of some burned sites by dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) indicated the potential for non-native plants to move into burned forest. Experimental germination rates were significantly higher on mineral soil compared to organic soil, indicating that severe fires that combust much of the organic layer could increase the potential for non-native plant colonization. We conclude that fire disturbances that remove the organic layer could facilitate the invasion of non-native plants providing there is a viable seed source and dispersal vector.

Soil carbon sequestration in agroecosystems could play a key role in climate change mitigation but will require accurate predictions of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks over spatial scales relevant to land management. Spatial variation in underlying drivers of SOC, such as plant productivity and soil mineralogy, complicates these predictions. Recent advances in the availability of remotely sensed data make it practical to generate multidecadal time series of vegetation indices with high spatial resolution and coverage. However, the utility of such data largely is unknown, only having been tested with shorter (e.g., 1–2 yr) data summaries. Across a 2,000 ha subtropical grassland, we found that a long time series (28 yr) of a vegetation index (Enhanced Vegetation Index; EVI) derived from the Landsat 5 satellite significantly enhanced prediction of spatially varying SOC pools, while a short summary (2 yr) was an ineffective predictor. EVI was the best predictor for surface SOC (0–5 cm depth) and total measured SOC stocks (0–15 cm). The optimum models for SOC in the upper soil layer combined EVI records with elevation and calcium concentration, while deeper SOC was more strongly associated with calcium availability. We demonstrate how data from the open access Landsat archive can predict SOC stocks, a key ecosystem metric, and illustrate the rich variety of analytical approaches that can be applied to long time series of remotely sensed greenness. Overall, our results showed that SOC pools were closely coupled to EVI in this ecosystem, demonstrating that maintenance of higher average green leaf area is correlated with higher SOC. The strong associations of vegetation greenness and calcium concentration with SOC suggest that the ability to sequester additional SOC likely will rely on strategic management of pasture vegetation and soil fertility.

Carbon (C) turnover time is a key factor in determining C storage capacity in various plant and soil pools as well as terrestrial C sink in a changing climate. However, the effects of C turnover time on ecosystem C storage have not been well explored. In this study, we compared mean C turnover times (MTTs) of ecosystem and soil, examined their variability to climate, and then quantified the spatial variation in ecosystem C storage over time from changes in C turnover time and/or net primary production (NPP). Our results showed that mean ecosystem MTT based on gross primary production (GPP; MTTEC_GPP =  Cpool/GPP, 25.0 ± 2.7 years) was shorter than soil MTT (MTTsoil =  Csoil/NPP, 35.5 ± 1.2 years) and NPP-based ecosystem MTT (MTTEC_NPP =  Cpool/NPP, 50.8 ± 3 years; Cpool and Csoil referred to ecosystem or soil C storage, respectively). On the biome scale, temperature is the best predictor for MTTEC (R2 =  0.77, p < 0.001) and MTTsoil (R2 =  0.68, p < 0.001), while the inclusion of precipitation in the model did not improve the performance of MTTEC (R2 =  0.76, p < 0.001). Ecosystem MTT decreased by approximately 4 years from 1901 to 2011 when only temperature was considered, resulting in a large C release from terrestrial ecosystems. The resultant terrestrial C release caused by the decrease in MTT only accounted for about 13.5 % of that due to the change in NPP uptake (159.3 ± 1.45 vs. 1215.4 ± 11.0 Pg C). However, the larger uncertainties in the spatial variation of MTT than temporal changes could lead to a greater impact on ecosystem C storage, which deserves further study in the future.

Temperature rise in the Arctic is causing deepening of active layers and resulting in the mobilization of deep permafrost dissolved organic matter (DOM). However, the mechanisms of DOM mobilization from Arctic soils, especially upper soil horizons which are drained most frequently through a year, are poorly understood. Here we conducted a short-term leaching experiment on surface and deep organic active layer soils, from the Yukon River basin, to examine the effects of DOM transport on bulk and molecular characteristics. Our data showed a net release of DOM from surface soils equal to an average of 5% of soil carbon. Conversely, deep soils percolated with surface leachates retained up to 27% of bulk DOM while releasing fluorescent components (up to 107%), indicating selective release of aromatic components (e.g., lignin and tannin), while retaining nonchromophoric components, as supported by spectrofluorometric and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectroscopic techniques. Our findings highlight the importance of the lateral flux of DOM on ecosystem carbon balance as well as processing of DOM transport through organic active layer soils en route to rivers and streams. This work also suggests the potential role of leachate export as an important mechanism of C losses from Arctic soils, in comparison with the more traditional pathway from soil to atmosphere in a warming Arctic.

Land surface phenology (LSP) has been widely retrieved from time series of various satellite instruments in order to monitor climate change and ecosystem dynamics. However, any evaluation of the quality of LSP data sets is quite challenging because the in situ observations on a limited number of individual trees, shrubs, or other plants are rarely representative of the landscape sampled in a single satellite pixel. Moreover, vegetation indices detecting biophysical features of vegetation seasonality are different from (but related to) the specific plant life history stages observed by humans at ground level. This study is the first comprehensive evaluation of the LSP product derived from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data using both MODIS LSP products and observations from the PhenoCam network across the Contiguous United States during 2013 and 2014. PhenoCam observes vegetation canopy over a landscape at very high frequency, providing nearly continuous canopy status and enabling the estimate of discrete phenophase using vegetation indices that are conceptually similar to satellite data. Six phenological dates (greenup onset, mid-greenup phase, maturity onset, senescence onset, mid-senescence phase, and dormancy onset) were retrieved separately from daily VIIRS NDVI (normalized difference vegetative index) and EVI2 (two-band enhanced vegetation index) time series. Similarly, the six phenological dates were also extracted from the 30-min time series of PhenoCam data using GCC (green chromatic coordinate) and VCI (vegetation contrast index) separately. Phenological dates derived from VIIRS NDVI and EVI2 and PhenoCam GCC and VCI were generally comparable for the vegetation greenup phase, but differed considerably for the senescence phase. Although all indices captured green leaf development effectively, performance discrepancies arose due to their ability to track the mixture of senescing leaf colors. PhenoCam GCC and VCI phenological observations were in better agreement with the phenological dates from VIIRS EVI2 than from VIIRS NDVI. Further, the VIIRS EVI2 phenological metrics were more similar to those from PhenoCam VCI than from PhenoCam GCC time series. Overall, the average absolute difference between the VIIRS EVI2 and PhenoCam VCI phenological dates was 7–11 days in the greenup phase and 10–13 days in the senescence phase. The difference was smaller in forests, followed by grasslands and croplands, and then savannas. Finally, the phenological dates derived from VIIRS EVI2 were compared with MODIS detections, which showed a good agreement with an average absolute difference less than a week except for the senescence onset. These results for the first time demonstrate the upper boundary of uncertainty in VIIRS LSP detections and the continuity to MODIS LSP product.

Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.